10/26/20 Daily Election Update!

OVERALL QUICK SUMMARY - Today was mixed, but overall, some very minor increases for Republicans today compared to yesterday, but race is largely unchanged. 

• Biden's chances of winning remain the same (538)
• Dem's electoral vote (EV) count decreased a moderate amount on 538 and RCP from yesterday 
• Number of Dems predicted in the Senate decreased by 1 to 51 (538)
• Number of Dems predicted in the House is unchanged at 239 (538)
• Most other analyses did not change
• 62 million voters (or 45% the 2016 levels) have voted so far in the US
• Over 1 million Kentuckians have already voted

See below for more information (with links). 

PREDICTIONS 

- FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 87% chance of winning (unchanged from yesterday) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

- RealClearPolitics betting markets give 65.9% to Biden and 35.1% to Trump (stable) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/.../bet.../2020_president/

- RealClearPolitics has Biden up 7.9% (same as yesterday) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/.../general_election...

ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTIONS

- FiveThirtyEight "no tossup" EV count: 342 Biden (down 3) to 163 Trump (see "how the forecast has changed) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ 

- RealClearPolitics "no tossup" EV count: 341 Biden (down 16) to 197 Trump https://www.realclearpolitics.com/.../2020_elections...

- 270 To Win "no tossup" map EV count is 334 Biden to 198 Trump https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-no-tossups

- Sabato's Crystal Ball: 290 Biden, 163 Trump, 85 tossup (no changes) https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-president/ 

SWING STATE STATUS AVG from RealClearPolitics

- WI Biden up 5.4% (up from 4.6 yesterday)

- MN Biden up 6% (stable)

- NC Biden up 1.8% (stable)

- FL Biden up 1.5% (stable)

- GA Trump up 0.4% 

- PA Biden up 4.9% (down from 5.1% yesterday)

- OH Trump up 0.6%

- MI Biden up 8.1% (up from 7.9% yesterday)

- IA Biden up 0.8%

- AZ Biden up 2.4%

- NV Biden up 5.2%

- TX Trump up 3.2% 

Scroll to bottom of this page to see swing states:  
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html 

SENATE PREDICTIONS (Note, the US Senate is currently composed of 47 Dems to 53 Repubs)

- FiveThirtyEight gives Dems 51 seats (down 1) to 49 Republicans https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020.../senate/

- Sabato gives Dems 50 seats to 49 Republicans. 1 tossup (NC) https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/

HOUSE PREDICTIONS (The US House currently has 232 Dems to 197 Repubs) 

- FiveThirtyEight gives Dems 238 seats (Down 1) to 197 for Repubs  
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election.../house/

- Sabato has Dems picking up 2-5 seats (No changes)
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-house/

VOTES CAST SO FAR IN THE US

-  Mixed reporting, but "nearly 60 million" 

- 136 million voted in 2016, total

-  We are at 44% of the 2016 total

It's worth noting that 538’s probabilities the last week before 2016 election day were ~71% Clinton, but they noted that there were too many unknowns to make a prediction. 538 has factored that in to 2020 projections. So, in theory, Biden is in better shape than was Clinton in 2016. 

Questions about poll reliability?  https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/polling-101-what-happened-to-the-polls-in-2016-and-what-you-should-know-about-them-in-2020/

Pollster ratings: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/  

What to expect on election night? Spoiler, FL, NC, and AZ could determine how soon we will know the results! https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/do-you-buy-that-we-will-know-who-won-on-election-night/ 

This will be a good exercise to see how/if things change daily so we can look back and see how accurate they were this cycle.