10/27/20 Election Update

DAILY SUMMARY of where the election stands (10/27/20). 7 days.
Mixed results again, but overall, Biden lost a few notches in 3 swing states (up in 1) according to RCP, and down in betting markets and RCP averages.
However, he is back up to where he was 2 days ago on 538 and increased his lead in Michigan.
We've surpassed 66 million votes (or 49% of usual voters).
Full lengthy summary with links in comments:

PREDICTIONS
- FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 88% chance of winning (up 2 from yesterday) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
- RealClearPolitics betting markets 64.1% Biden to 35.0% Trump (down 1.8% from yesterday) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/.../bet.../2020_president/
- RealClearPolitics has Biden up 7.4 (down 0.5%)
ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTIONS
- FiveThirtyEight "no tossup" EV count: 344 Biden (up 2) to 194 Trump (under "how the forecast has changed) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
- RealClearPolitics "no tossup" EV count: 311 Biden (down 33) to 227 Trump https://www.realclearpolitics.com/.../2020_elections...
- 270 electoral EV count is 350 Biden (up 16), 182Trump https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-no-tossups
- Sabato's Crystal Ball: 290 Biden, 163 Trump, 85 tossup (no changes) https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-president/
SWING STATE STATUS AVG from RealClearPolitics
- WI Biden up 5.5% (stable)
- MN Biden up 6% (stable)
- NC Biden up 0.7% (down 1.1%)
- FL Trump up 0.4 (down 2%, switched to Trump)
- GA Trump up 0.4% (stable)
- PA Biden up 3.8% (down from 1.1%)
- OH Trump up 0.6% (stable)
- MI Biden up 9.4% (up from 7.9%)
- IA Biden up 0.8% (stable)
- AZ Biden up 2.4% (stable)
- NV Biden up 4.6% (down 0.6%)
- TX Trump up 2.4% (from 2.6%)
SENATE PREDICTIONS (currently 47 Dems to 53 Repubs)
- FiveThirtyEight gives Dems 51 seats to 49 Republicans (stable) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020.../senate/
- Sabato gives Dems 50 seats to 49 Republicans. 1 tossup (NC) https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/
HOUSE PREDICTIONS (currently 232 Dems to 197 Repubs)
- FiveThirtyEight gives Dems 239 seats (up 1) to 196 for Repubs
- Sabato has Dems picking up 2-5 seats (No changes) https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-house/
VOTES CAST SO FAR IN THE US
- 66 million
- 136 million voted in 2016, total
- We are at 49% of the 2016 total

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

10/26/20 Daily Election Update!

OVERALL QUICK SUMMARY - Today was mixed, but overall, some very minor increases for Republicans today compared to yesterday, but race is largely unchanged.  Biden's chances of winning remain the same (538) Dem's electoral vote (EV) count decreased a moderate amount on 538 and RCP from yesterday  Number of Dems predicted in the Senate decreased by 1 to 51 (538) Number of Dems predicted in the House is unchanged at 239 (538) Most other analyses did not change 62 million voters (or 45% the 2016 levels) have voted so far in the US Over 1 million Kentuckians have already voted See below for more information (with links).  PREDICTIONS  - FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 87% chance of winning (unchanged from yesterday) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ - RealClearPolitics betting markets give  65.9% to Biden and 35.1% to Trump (stable) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/.../bet.../2020_president/ - RealClearPolitics has Biden up 7.9% (same as yesterday) ht
Read more